vendredi 18 juillet 2025

The madness of Keir's bribe to kids

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Friday, 18 July 2025

Good morning and welcome to From the Editor.

Labour’s plan to give the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds has been branded a self-serving attempt to rig the next general election. Ben Butcher, our Data Editor, scrutinises the potential impact this desperate change could have and identifies the key seats where it could make all the difference.

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The seats that Labour’s teenage voters will steal from Reform

Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of “breathtaking” cynicism after announcing plans to bring down the voting age to 16.

The Prime Minister said 16- and 17-year-olds were old enough to pay taxes and they should therefore get a say in the running of the country.

Tory and Reform UK figures claimed the Labour leader was trying to “rig” future elections amid his party’s waning political support since taking office last year.

Ben Butcher, Data Editor, reviews the poll data to see how this could impact the next general election.

Ben Butcher

Ben Butcher

Data Editor

 

It’s not a conventional way to gain extra votes, but Labour’s plans to extend the franchise to 16- and 17-year-olds overwhelmingly benefits one group: the Left.

Had the more-than 1.35 million potential new voters been added to the electoral roll for the 2024 election, and had they mirrored under-25s in terms of voting patterns and turnout, then Labour would have secured an additional 200,000 votes, and the Greens 100,000 more. Reform UK, on the other hand, would have gained 40,000.

One year on, Reform is surging in the polls and is well on track to be the largest party in the next election, but still 55 seats short of a majority, according to YouGov’s latest constituency-level poll.

The next election will be defined by wafer-thin majorities as a fragmented electorate abandons the two-party system. Using this polling, we’ve found nine seats that Reform would probably lose with the “teen vote” out in force, helping tip the balance to Labour in seats where every vote will count.

This extension of the vote is unlikely to help swing a radical Left-wing government into power but it will add a speed bump to Reform’s momentum.

It might, therefore, be Jeremy Corbyn and his new party who come to Reform’s aid. Labour is losing the youth vote by the day: the new voters may never even give Sir Keir a chance.
Read more of the analysis here

 

Opinion and analysis

 
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