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John Healey’s Budget changes nothing of substance | Credit: Treasury / Lauren Hurley |
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Allister Heath Editor of The Sunday Telegraph |
John Healey had a simple task, and he delivered it to perfection. Forget the British taxpayer: the Chancellor’s job was to provide Andy Burnham with “breathing space”. Healey’s task was to buy the Prime Minister time by kicking the proverbial can down the road and dodging every difficult choice.
The real decision will be taken in No 10, not No 11: whether to call a snap general election. Burnham continues to deny that he intends to do so, but I strongly suspect that he isn’t telling the truth, or, at the very least, that he hasn’t decided yet. He needs space to strategise, an absence of distractions, hence Healey’s stalling tactics, his nothingburger of a Budget, his inadequate farrago of tinkering, fantastical predictions and stealth tax increases that will marginally exacerbate our woes but change nothing of substance.
The terrible truth is that Britain is on auto-pilot to oblivion, our future one of immiseration, mediocrity and despair, courtesy of appalling decisions from politicians of all major parties since 1997.
Economic growth is expected at 1.2 per cent this year and an even more woeful 1 per cent next year; our performance would be even worse in the absence of the global AI investment boom. Inflation is elevated, only partly because of the Iran war. Living standards are falling and real disposable incomes are expected to end up just 2 per cent above pre-pandemic levels by 2030-31, meaning another wasted decade for families.
House prices are collapsing in London and the South East as a result of deliberate demand destruction, and Labour’s housebuilding boom will never materialise. Taxes will go up by an extra £7.3bn a year as a result of Healey’s measures, including obscene increases in tax on savers and landlords (thank you, Karl Marx), mini-cab users and banks, but that is only a tiny part of a bleak picture. Much more substantial rises were already baked in thanks to fiscal drag and the freezing of thresholds.
The tax burden will smash its record of 37.2 per cent of GDP in 2027-28, ending up 6 per cent of GDP above its pre-pandemic level by 2031-32. We are paying ever more to fund an exploding welfare budget and a shamefully shrunken watchman-state.
Yet when Burnham surveys this nightmare, his conclusion is the very opposite to the one I would draw.
This analysis is available to subscribers only.
Continue reading ➤
Healey launches tax raid on savers as welfare bill spirals ➤
Chancellor hits MoD with £2bn stealth cuts ➤
Petrol drivers face threat of tax raid to cut EV costs ➤
Telegraph View: Labour is strangling the life out of the economy ➤ |
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Lewis Page The Chancellor resigned as defence secretary over inadequate funding – only to repeat the same failure at the Treasury Continue reading ➤
Tim Stanley Honest John is rearranging deckchairs on a sinking ship Continue reading ➤
Daniel Johnson Kemi’s evisceration of Healey proves that her time has come Continue reading ➤ |
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Your budget essential reads |
John Healey promised breathing space, but the small print tells a grimmer story, writes Szu Ping Chan, our Economics Editor. Growth is faltering, living standards are set to fall and Britain’s tax burden is heading for a post-war high. The Chancellor’s short-term sweeteners may offer relief today, but at what cost to tomorrow’s prosperity? Continue reading ➤ |
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Amit Koshal built a property portfolio to fund his retirement. Now, Labour’s latest tax raid has left the dentist questioning whether he can afford to keep it. With higher taxes looming and compliance costs mounting, landlords face an increasingly stark choice: sell up or keep working for longer. Continue reading ➤ |
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John Healey promised households “breathing space” in his maiden Budget. While some people may find themselves better off, many others have been hit by painful tax rises. Telegraph Money explains how the Chancellor’s measures will affect your finances, and what you can do right now to minimise the damage. For subscribers only ➤ |
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You already have plenty of questions about what yesterday’s announcement means for you. Tony Diver, our Political Editor, and Sam Brodbeck, our Money Editor, are standing in for Orlando Bird this morning to answer them. Janet Barningham asked: “Where is the money coming from? Thousands are signing onto benefits daily, and unemployment continues to rise.”
Tony writes...
While John Healey acknowledged the high rates of unemployment at the end of his speech, he said the Government was not going to do anything about it until next year. It was also the first time we heard there will be a white paper and legislation introduced to reform the welfare system.
As for where the money is coming from, he was pretty explicit about who the Budget is for and who it is against. He named the banks, vape companies, betting shops and landlords among the losers.
Karen Wood asked: “With our household income around £35k, living in a Band E house worth about £400k, we won’t get the £100 energy payment. Those with income two or three times as much and in homes worth far more, will. How is this fair? Council tax bands are an utterly meaningless and unjust measure of ability to pay.”
Sam writes...
Council tax bands haven’t been reset since 1991, and that has all sorts of consequences. Property values in London and the South East in particular are way out of line with the rest of the country, as a result of years of strong house price growth there.
Andy Burnham has talked about this before, and at one point it looked as though he might order a full revaluation to put it right. That hasn’t happened.
With the mansion tax coming in, however, a revaluation would mean reassessing a huge number of properties. This problem isn’t going away. The Government clearly wants to tax property one way or another, and as it runs out of other options, I suspect homes will be firmly on its list.
Using the bands is unfair, but ministers presumably see it as a clean and easy way to do it. Do you have a question about how the Budget will affect you? Head to our Live Q&A, where Mike Warburton, our tax expert, and a panel of our specialists will be answering your questions from 9am till 3pm today. |
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• Poundland directors are poised to file a notice to appoint administrators leaving thousands of jobs at risk, The Telegraph can reveal. The news shows Labour’s poundshop economics is crushing businesses, writes Ben Marlow, our Associate Editor.
• Tommy Robinson faces a jail sentence of up to 10 years after being found guilty of harassing journalists. The far-Right activist revealed on X before the trial began that Elon Musk had funded his legal fees.
• Huntingdon train attack passengers fought back using frying pans and toasters, a court heard. Anthony Williams, 33, is on trial for attempted murder after stabbing 10 people on a train.
• Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has accused Israel’s Arab parties of electoral fraud, and has filed complaints with election authorities and law enforcement agencies.
• Jane Austen’s “truth universally acknowledged” is one of her best-known quotes, but it has been ignored in Pride and Prejudice adaptations – until now. Olivia Colman delivers the words in a trailer for Netflix’s upcoming series.
Olivia Colman plays the match-making Mrs Bennet in Netflix’s Pride and Prejudice |
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Further essential reading |
Credit: Press Association / Yui Mok |
Russell Brand has acknowledged inconsistencies in his evidence as he faces seven charges of rape and sexual assault. The comedian told jurors his recollection had “evolved”, while revealing that none of his friends or former colleagues would testify in his defence. He denies the charges. Continue reading ➤ |
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A date with an erudite doctor from Fulham changed everything, writes Kate Mulvey. At first, we were sipping chilled wine at a cosy restaurant. An hour later, my top was flung to the wind and I was insisting he take me to his house. He managed to put me in his bed to sleep. When I woke, there was a pot of coffee and a note with the number of an Alcoholics Anonymous centre. I knew this was my sign to change my ways. Continue reading ➤ |
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Melania Trump once prompted uproar when she travelled to a detention centre for migrant children wearing a jacket emblazoned with the slogan, “I REALLY DON’T CARE, DO U?” Now, America’s first lady has caused critics to reconsider their view of her after helping to secure a ceasefire in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, in Ukraine. Could this be the start of a new career as a diplomat? Donald Trump would never allow it, experts tell Leaf Arbuthnot. Continue reading ➤ |
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Claire Arnopp was just 39 when she had a stroke while ordering her daughter’s school dinners. From loud snoring to prolonged sitting, some risk factors are less obvious than you might think. Experts explain the surprising links, why midlifers should pay attention and what can help reduce your own risk. Continue reading ➤ |
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‘Winter is coming... great news!’In this column, one of our writers takes an unfashionable position, either defending a subject that’s been unfairly maligned or criticising something that most people love.
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Joshua Hughes Senior Newsletter Editor |
For many, winter is a punishing time of year. The temperature drops, the days get shorter and worst of all, people get moodier.
I’m not ashamed to admit that I love it, and I’ll go so far as to say that it is better – more enjoyable and palatable – than summer.
I’ve lost count of the number of sleepless nights I have had because of the hot weather. When the first of the heatwaves came along in May, it was unbearable, and an occasion when it was better to be in the office than elsewhere, primarily due to it having decent air conditioning. Public transport essentially became an oven for three months.
While “winter is coming” is often used in negative contexts, for me, with winter comes the excitement of Hallowe’en, and the anticipation of Christmas.
This is the cosy time of year. The period when we deliberately hold events to bring people together, curl up on the sofa and watch a film or read a book.
At the heart of all this is one thing: food. If you were to suggest cooking a full roast in peak summer, people would look at you as if you were mad, but in winter it often feels like some are looking for an excuse to turn on the oven.
As an avid rugby fan, it is hard to deny that winter is the best part of the season. There’s nothing better than going to Twickenham on a frosty November afternoon, or watching the plethora of games on offer, compared with the few matches played over summer.
I’ll admit that the freezing cold isn’t ideal, but it’s a lot easier to warm up in winter than it is to cool down in summer. We do heating well in this country, mainly because we’ve had to.
Rainy weather is also simply a part of Britain’s DNA. Our homes are built to retain heat, and there’s a reason we have (or had) a winter fuel payment in this country. Perhaps, after this summer, there’s an argument for us to have a “summer cooling allowance”. Though that doesn’t have the same ring to it.
Do you agree with Joshua? Send your replies here. Please confirm in your response that you are happy to be featured and that we have your permission to use your name. |
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1924 | Labour minority government loses election to Conservatives led by Stanley Baldwin
1929 | Stock market crash on Wall Street, known as Black Tuesday, triggers the Great Depression
1950 | Stafford Cripps, the chancellor of the Exchequer, resigns
1957 | Hand grenade thrown from a balcony in Israel’s Knesset injures David Ben-Gurion, the prime minister, and Golda Meir, the foreign minister (see our front page coverage of the story in the following day’s paper below)
Bithdays: Michael Vaughan (52), Winona Ryder (55), Lee Child (72)
Elsewhere, our travel team has compiled a list of the best, and worst, celebrity-run hotels. One of the hits is Sir Andy and Kim Murray’s country house hotel in Stirlingshire, but what is it called?
1. SW19
2. Cromlix
3. Cuilidh
4. Deuce
Click one of the options to reveal the answer... |
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Find as many words as you can in today’s Panagram, including the nine-letter solution. Visit Telegraph Puzzles to play a range of head-scratching games, including The 1% Club, Cogs, and Quick, Mini or Cryptic Crosswords.
Yesterday’s Panagram was COLLEAGUE. Come back tomorrow for the solution to today’s puzzle. |
Thank you for reading. Have a fulfilling day and I hope to see you tomorrow. Chris Evans, Editor
I’d love to hear what you think of this newsletter. You can email me your feedback at fromtheeditor@telegraph.co.uk. |
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