| Unlock full access to our free-thinking journalism for less than 50p per week. | | Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field – the world’s largest – on Wednesday |  | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard World Economy Editor | It is hard to decide which is the bigger disaster: the unfolding car crash in the global gas market or the mounting danger that entire countries will run out of oil.
The benchmark Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract for gas in Europe was €29 (£25) per megawatt hour (MWh) in mid-February. Bank of America says it could reach €500 (£431) this winter if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 10 weeks, as it may well do.
That would blow through the record high that occurred after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and amount to a full-blown economic emergency for Europe, the UK, Japan, South Korea and South Asia.
The picture is dramatically worse after Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field, adding upstream gas and oil infrastructure to the menu of targets on both sides of the Gulf.
Iran’s missile retaliation on Qatar’s Ras Laffan has inflicted serious damage to the giant complex, which alone produces a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG).
It will be months before shipments start again. Qatar Energy says 17 per cent of production is lost for three to five years. It will have to declare force majeure on LNG supplies to Italy, Korea, China and Belgium.
It is just as bad for oil. The paper market that we all follow does not capture the drama. Physical deliveries are under far greater stress than Brent futures, at about $113, would suggest.
Actual barrels of the Dubai basket and Oman’s Murban are fetching close to $170 a barrel as Asian refiners scramble to buy anything they can. Jet fuel deliveries have hit $210 in Rotterdam and $240 in Singapore.
As one oil veteran tells me: the Russia shock in 2022 was a picnic compared to what is now happening. The world will hit a brick wall within two months.
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See more of our coverage below:
• Saudi Arabia threatens strikes on Iran ➤
• The missile strike that changed the war ➤
• Live updates | IEA urges people to work from home as energy prices soar ➤ | | Anti-Iranian regime protesters rally outside Downing Street earlier this month |  | Colin Freeman | The sharp end of the Iran conflict might be playing out 3,000 miles away, but here in Britain a shadow war is being waged on the streets, as Tehran mounts a campaign of retaliation.
Security experts warn that Iran is increasingly turning to “asymmetric warfare” within the UK. This ranges from violence at protests and trolling on social media through to plots against opposition activists and the Jewish community, who fear that Tehran may even have “lone wolf” attackers ready to carry out terror attacks.
With the Islamic Republic outgunned by its foes in conventional terms, the worry is that this different form of aggression may escalate as the regime’s options narrow.
Ominously, intelligence officials also warn that while Tehran lacks the capabilities of powers like China or Russia, it has a notably higher “risk appetite”. Their hope is that, with the regime under increasing pressure, its priority will be simply survival. However, it may equally go down fighting on all fronts, hiring any foot soldier willing to do its bidding.
Continue reading ➤
Go deeper with our full coverage of the Iran war:
• Latest updates | US launches offensive to reopen Strait of Hormuz ➤
• Tehran’s most powerful weapon is not a drone, missile or mine ➤
• French sailor’s Strava exposes location of aircraft carrier ➤ | | Sherelle Jacobs Kemi Badenoch is told that grassroots campaigning matters more than grand visions in the battle against Reform Continue reading ➤ David Blair The war has escalated into a dangerous new phase Continue reading ➤ Jamie Blackett Starmer would be a better man if he shot pheasants Continue reading ➤ | | To make sure you don’t miss our newsletters when they land in your inbox, click here. | | The meningitis outbreak has led people to wonder whether they should be wearing masks, writes Sarah Knapton, our Science Editor. The problem lies in whether the disease is truly airborne, and there are some mixed opinions among scientists. Bristol University is carrying out research into how far meningitis bacteria can travel in the air. Until the results are back, masks look set to be a common sight in our lives again. Continue reading ➤ | | | Ten years ago, the market for new-build flats in London was flying. Fuelled by rock-bottom interest rates and Help to Buy, the capital’s shiny new-builds commanded a 65 per cent premium. Now, in an over-saturated market plagued by rising service charges, flat sellers are discovering that no one wants to invest in them. For subscribers only ➤ | | | Adrian Gillan, 54, estimates that around 90 per cent of his work is entirely unclothed | | Adrian Gillan estimates that half a million people have made three million drawings of his naked body over the years. He’s one of the few self-confessed “exhibitionists” who has managed to turn this trait into a full-time job, earning £30,000 a year and standing out from his peers with his “dynamic and theatrical poses”. Continue reading ➤ | | | Radio 3 once showcased live classical music, satire and readings of Shakespeare | | Radio 3 has undergone significant changes since its conception. Ivan Hewett, our Classical Music Critic, has examined the station’s schedules from across the decades to discover whether those griping about its abandonment of the high-brow have a point. As he charts its evolution from the Isaiah Berlin series to the “quirky” and the “personal”, it turns out the case for its “dumbing down” proves quite strong. Continue reading ➤ | | | I regularly face pushy patients demanding extended sick notes for minor complaints, writes one anonymous London doctor. When refusing them stretches a 10-minute appointment into a 30-minute confrontation, it is far easier to simply sign them off. With 2.8 million people now classed as “long-term sick”, it’s time someone did something about this backwards, broken system. Continue reading ➤ | | | Kelly has become one of the most recognisable faces in women’s football | | Chloe Kelly was in great spirits when we met at Arsenal’s training ground to discuss everything from the Euros to Barbie dolls, writes Kathryn Batte, Women’s Football Correspondent. She explained how she has matured since scoring the Lionesses’ winning goal at Euro 2022, why she enjoyed last summer’s tournament so much and her plans to bring more trophies to Arsenal before the end of the season.
Continue reading ➤ | | | Alix and Liam Newton say the move, and particularly the warm weather, has ‘transformed’ the way they live | While the East and West Coasts have long been hotspots for British expats, business-friendly cities like Austin, Texas, are attracting a steady stream of overseas nationals keen to take advantage of the tax benefits and outdoor lifestyle. In the latest instalment of our series, a young family explains how they made the move across the pond. Continue reading ➤ Here is another helpful article for you this morning: - From tackling stains to making your windows shine, this 35p product may already be in your kitchen cupboard. Here’s how to use it.
| | Barrie Kosky’s version of the third chapter of Wagner’s Ring cycle is a triumph | Opera Siegfried, Royal Opera House
★★★★★ Sparks fly and flowers bloom in the penultimate instalment of Barrie Kosky’s Ring cycle for Covent Garden. In the previous two operas, Das Rheingold and Die Walküre, the Australian director presented an unremittingly bleak picture of tortured relationships. Here, with the arrival of Andreas Schager’s exuberant, naïve Siegfried, there are glimpses of comedy and even hope. The Royal Opera’s production, conducted by Antonio Pappano, is a triumph.
(Until April 6; rbo.org.uk. In cinemas from March 31)
Read Nicholas Kenyon’s full review ➤ TV The Other Bennet Sister, BBC One ★★★★★ Readers of Pride and Prejudice will know that poor old Mary Bennet never got much of a look-in. The Other Bennet Sister, based on a novel by Janice Hadlow, puts that right. It gives this forgotten character her moment in the spotlight, and it is a pure delight. Ella Bruccoleri is perfect as the bookish, bespectacled Mary, forever trailing unnoticed after her more sparkling sisters. She wins our sympathy entirely as she tries her best to overcome Ugly Duckling syndrome.
(On BBC iPlayer now)
Read Anita Singh’s full review ➤ Film Project Hail Mary ★★★★☆ With flashy practical effects and a heart-warming story, Project Hail Mary is like a medley of all your favourite sci-fi films. In this adaptation of a 2021 Andy Weir novel, Ryan Gosling teams up with a cute, affable alien to save their respective home planets from an impending ice age. It’s essentially Interstellar recast as a buddy movie – a majestically mounted, existentially inclined space-faring epic. Gosling is enormous fun in his first solo starring role on this scale.
(In cinemas now)
Read Robbie Collin’s full review ➤ | Signed, sealed, (not) delivered Every weekday, Orlando Bird, our loyal reader correspondent, shares an off-piste topic that has brought out the best of your opinions and stories. Orlando writes...
Even those of us who weren’t around for the golden age of Royal Mail have a sneaking suspicion that things have gone fairly sharply downhill. There are simply too many stories like this one, from Laurel Middleton: “I am lucky if I get one delivery a week. A fortnight ago, I received so much post that it took me half an hour to sort it out. I recently had a birthday and about half my cards were a week late. I subscribe to a television guide, which does not come until halfway through the week it covers.”
For Jonathan Williams, there was one particular irritation: “Royal Mail has failed to deliver my copy of The Spectator two weeks running. If they do arrive, it won’t be the same reading them so long after their sell-by date.”
What I hadn’t appreciated, though, was just how formidable the service used to be. Hugh Foster was prompted to recall: “Some years ago I visited Down House, Charles Darwin’s home in Kent. He was a great letter writer and had numerous mail deliveries each day. On one occasion he apparently posted a letter to a friend by first post and received a reply that evening. How times have changed.”
Frances Luczyc Wyhowska added: “When I was young there were extra deliveries at Christmas – two in the morning, one in the early afternoon and one in the evening. It was thrilling for a child – and so much jollier than an email. Parcels came wrapped in brown paper and string. If you happened to have friends who went shooting, there were special thick cardboard envelopes that could be used to send pheasants.”
Game mail? I confess to a scintilla of scepticism about that one, but the responses put me right. Mary Hill wrote: “Some time in the 1950s, my mother-in-law expressed a desire to taste hare. So my father, a farmer, shot one. My mother tied an addressed label round its neck and posted it. The hare arrived promptly the following morning.” Do you remember Royal Mail’s better days? Send your responses here, and the best of the bunch will feature in a future edition of From the Editor PM, for which you can sign up here.
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Thank you for reading. Have a fulfilling day and I hope to see you tomorrow.
Chris Evans, Editor | |
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